Does Obama have the cojones to take on tax reform?

Welcome to tax reform redux:

True radical tax reform would be as big and complex a subject as health care reform. In retrospect, many Obama supporters — and possibly the man himself — wish that he had put off health care in his first term and attended to the economy instead. Tax reform could become the health care reform of the next couple of years: a distraction and target for opponents, ending with a pyrrhic victory. 

Another worry is whether Obama has the right temperament for this kind of issue. It requires persuading interest groups of all sorts to give up their special deals so that rates can be lower and the forms can be simpler for all of us. Obama’s tendency, when negotiating or arbitrating a dispute, is to solve it by giving everybody a little something. The deal he made over extending the Bush tax cuts was essentially saying yes to things that cost money and no to things that might bring in the odd penny. 

Tax reform will produce winners and losers. Even if reform is revenue-neutral for the government, it can’t be revenue-neutral for individuals. Inevitably, some will pay less, and some will pay more. You have to be prepared to say “too bad” to the losers. If you start tossing them small morsels, the whole project will unravel. 

If Obama handles tax reform the same way he handled healthcare reform, tax reform will be a mess.