Monday, November 22, 2010

Can China create an enormous middle class?

A Japanese newspaper op-ed argues no:
Since around 2008, real estate prices have shot up so high that the price of a condo in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou now is 30 to 50 times the annual income of those in the middle class.
Further aggravating the situation has been a sudden drop in the stock market. The SSE Composite Index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, for example, fell from a peak of more than 6,000 in autumn 2007 to around 3,000 at present.
What exactly is the size of the middle class in China? One answer to this question is given by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-affiliated think tank. It says in its report that 23 percent of the total population belongs to this category. This means about 300 million out of the population of 1.3 billion, some 2.7 times the size of the middle class in Japan, estimated at 110 million.
Marketing experts point out, however, that there is a big mathematical trick in the statistics announced by the academy, which defines the middle class as those who earn more than 6,000 yuan (about ¥80,000) per month. With that monthly income, one can barely survive in big cities like Beijing or Shanghai, let alone enjoy life as a big spender.
There are two reasons why the Chinese government has artificially blown up the size of the middle class. One is to drive home to Chinese people that the government's economic policies have been highly successful. The other is to give foreign corporations high expectations about China's markets.

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