Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Bad European and good US economic news

Portugal next as EMU's Máquina Infernal keeps ticking
So must Europe’s leaders, who comfort themselves that Greece is a special case because it cheated, and that Ireland is a special case because it allowed its "Anglo-Saxon" banks to go berserk. They have yet to acknowledge the deeper truth that monetary union has insidiously destabilised much of Europe and trapped a ring of largely innocent countries in depression.
In my experience it is hazardous for English-speaking journalists to write about Portugal without being accused of betraying the Aliança Velha, or pursuing a perfidious Palmerstonian agenda.
It is an article of faith - an Iberian trait - that Portugal is the victim of an orchestrated calumny intended to divert attention from a bankrupt Britain, or America. The rating agencies are deemed agents of Anglo-Saxon hegemony.
Sadly, I think the Europeans are so heavily invested in the Euro that they have no choice but to kick the can and see that it continues to exist in some form of its current self.  That likely means many more years of depression in many countries and ultimately some real reform that at least partially fixes the structural flaws in the EMU.  Full unity, a United States of Europe is simply not realistic in my opinion.  That likely means the core will be forced to fund the periphery until one of two things happen:
  • The periphery nations revolt and realize that they are suffering at the hands of foreign bankers and an inherently flawed currency system.  OR;
  • The core realizes that they are going to be forced to fund the periphery deficits for years to come.
In the end, this all leads to one road – defaults (or restructurings of some kind) and/or defections.  The Euro is a flawed single currency system.  Even if we get extremely lucky and survive this crisis without any serious repercussions the likelihood of future problems are 100%.  This is simply what single currency systems do.  They put particular trade deficit nations at risk of severe financial constraints.  The inability to properly deal with these problems has always led to major reform, abandonment, default, revolt or war.  Let’s hope we can avoid the last one.
The Complete Guide To The Oncoming Spanish Debt Crisis That Everyone Is Terrified Of

U.S. economy grows faster than expected in third quarter
The American economy grew faster in the third quarter of this year than previously estimated, thanks mostly to stronger consumer spending and U.S. exports, the government said Tuesday.
Economic growth in the July-to-September period was revised up to 2.5% at an annual rate, from 2% estimated earlier by the Commerce Department. The report was an encouraging sign, as gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, showed a marked improvement from the anemic 1.7% growth in the second quarter.
But the most recent increase in GDP still isn't strong enough to make a dent in the country's high unemployment rate, stuck at 9.6% in recent months. Analysts say GDP growth of at least 3% is needed to bring down the jobless figure, but many don't expect the economy to perform that well in the fourth quarter or early next year.

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